Cost-benefit analysis

BADEMO (Sobradelo et al 2015) performs a cost-benefit analysis to assist the decision-making process by evaluating the economic impact of the different eruptive scenarios. It is a Bayesian decision model that applies a general, flexible, probabilistic approach to the management of volcanic crises by combining the hazard and risk factors that decision-makers need for a holistic analysis of a volcanic crisis. These factors include eruption scenarios and their probabilities of occurrence, the vulnerability of populations and their activities, and the costs of false alarms and erroneous forecasts. BADEMO enables the previous analysis of the distribution of local susceptibility and vulnerability to eruptions to be combined with specific costs and potential losses, and should be seen as a tool for improving communication between the scientists who provide volcanological information and those responsible for deciding which action plans and mitigating strategies should be put into practice.