Simulation models

The stratigraphic record  allows identifying all the volcanological scenarios that a volcanic system has generated in the past. Understanding the detailed nature and the sequence of possible phases in past eruptions, together with the timing of volcanic and associated products, helps to understand how a volcanic system may behave in the future. This will provide valuable information on the duration, extent and intensity of past eruption phases, which will be crucial for identifying potential danger zones and in land planning and the development of emergency plans. In addition, if the volcanic system has been active in recent years and direct observation and instrument monitoring of eruptions has been possible, we can associate possible precursory/premonitory activity to particular eruption types and products.

 When all possible past volcanic scenarios in a particular system have been identified, we can create a simulation based on current topographic, demographic and environmental conditions, and the volcanic susceptibly we have calculated before. Essentially, we are interested in simulating the volcanic and associated processes that might constitute a hazard. Volcanic scenarios are normally simulated by assuming a specific vent location to anticipate what might happen in the event of an eruption of a certain type originating at that particular point. However, it is also possible to create scenarios in a zone with distributions of volcanic susceptibility values, and construct partial or total hazard maps.

 VOLCANBOX considers the main direct volcanic hazards (lavas flows, fallout, PDCs, lahars) and            some associated indirect hazards, such as landslides and seismicity